fiscal assumptions and sustainability
Independent Fiscal Council
Provide an independent assessment of the projections, costs and sustainability of Candeia’s institutional finances without choosing policies in place of the Government or Assembly.
Pre-Foundation · permanent institution not installedConstitutional Proposal · reference text · not promulgated
Why it exists
Fiscal forecasts can be distorted when the party promising a policy also has sole control over the figures used to justify it. The Council is the proposed second, technical and public assessment.
How it tests whether plans and the budget add up
Produce independent forecasts, assess fiscal sustainability, certify constitutional costs and monitor fiscal rules without determining the Government’s economic policy.
Assess the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and budget coherence. Produce or endorse an independent macro-fiscal scenario. Certify the Net Structural Revenue Base, fiscal assumptions and constitutionally required stress assessments.
5 members: 1 elected by the Assembly by a three-fifths majority; 1 appointed by the President; 1 chosen by the Court of Audit; 1 by the Central Bank; and 1 selected by public lot from qualified lists/candidates.
No source controls a majority; the composition must bring together expertise in macroeconomics, public finance, accounting, statistics or equivalent fields.
Single, staggered seven-year terms.
Its own analytical programme and methodologies, with lawful and timely access to data; political and economic incompatibility rules protect independence.
An independent budget and sufficient technical staff under Art. 265; exceptional cuts to its own budget use a temporary independent fiscal panel instead of self-certification.
For the grounds set out in Art. 266, by decision of 6 of the 9 members of the Constitutional Court after constitutionally authorised proceedings are initiated.
Public methodologies, fiscally reconciled disagreements, judicial review of refusals to provide data and parliamentary hearings without control over technical merit.
Forecasts, methodologies, scenarios, opinions on the budget/Fiscal Plan, fiscal certifications, sustainability assessments and risk reports.
It does not choose a tax, programme, provider, architecture, the content of a social right or the political composition of the budget where constitutionally valid alternatives exist.
What it assesses in practice
- Assess the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and budget coherence.
- Produce or endorse an independent macro-fiscal scenario.
- Certify the Net Structural Revenue Base, fiscal assumptions and constitutionally required stress assessments.
Analysis is not policy choice
The Council does not choose a tax, programme, provider, architecture, the content of a social right or the political composition of the budget where constitutionally valid alternatives exist.